Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
76 0x76d0…24b5 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,950 (-49%) realized −$1,946 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +118% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +97% what you keep after slip
Net edge+97%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$612now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$740
other 44% −$1,124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+97.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +137.8% +115.2% 36% 36% -65.9%
≤30d 11 +137.8% +115.2% 36% 36% -65.9%
≤90d 12 +118.0% +97.3% 33% 33% -71.7%
all 12 +118.0% +97.3% 33% 33% -71.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +97.3% 33% -71.7%
10% +78.4% 33% -74.4%
15% +61.1% 25% -76.9%
20% +45.3% 17% -79.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +118% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +295% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$277 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$612
Realized−$1,946
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage74d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $550 $546 −$4 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $531 +$93 +18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $396 +$135 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $311 −$307 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $172 −$169 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$56 +37%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $502 −$500 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $252 −$250 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$74 +145%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $479 −$473 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $68 34m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $554 34m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $621 50m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $531 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $531 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $396 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $209 5h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 77¢ $208 5h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $172 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $152 6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $203 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $68 2d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 87¢ $502 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $253 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $252 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $125 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $51 2d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 62¢ $479 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $612.41 · official $612.26 (match) · 20 history records