Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76d2…6bfc sports 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 215d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 214d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$5,799 (-5%) realized −$3,492 · open −$2,307
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate63%167W / 97L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$1,023est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$2,679
14 days−$1,716
30 days−$3,016
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$6,808
other 9% −$860
politics 5% +$446
culture 3% −$259
world 1% −$191
tech 1% −$637
economics 0% −$4
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +32.6% +19.9% 63% 44% -12.9%
≤30d 112 +26.7% +14.6% 66% 40% -12.7%
≤90d 165 +9.7% -0.8% 65% 33% -13.1%
all 264 +3.5% -6.3% 63% 28% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 28% -14.6%
10% -15.3% 20% -22.8%
15% -23.5% 13% -30.3%
20% -31.0% 9% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$136 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$451
Realized−$3,492
Unrealized−$2,307
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses167 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$1,023
Open positions48
Markets (closed)264 / 310
History coverage215d ⚠
Avg bet$381
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paula Badosa be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? No 96¢ 99¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 87¢ 97¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+12%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+17%)
Will Brooke Pinto win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? No 97¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will Amazon acquire TikTok? No 98¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? Yes 66¢ 95¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Will the Republican Party win the HI-02 House seat? No 93¢ 94¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 45¢ 81¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+80%)
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? No 98¢ 85¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? No 100¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? No 88¢ 86¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No 87¢ 84¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 75¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $4,092 −$65 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $415 +$29 +7%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2,485 −$377 -15%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,351 +$65 +5%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,505 −$315 -13%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $4,033 +$323 +8%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $766 +$14 +2%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $926 +$258 +28%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $115 +$7 +6%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $157 +$14 +9%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $114 +$5 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $115 +$10 +9%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $138 +$19 +14%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $745 −$23 -3%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,094 −$91 -8%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $118 +$12 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,835 −$12 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,571 +$161 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4,111 −$359 -9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,471 +$355 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $235 +$71 +30%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,143 +$83 +7%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $365 +$83 +23%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $884 +$152 +17%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $2,474 −$355 -14%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $280 +$100 +36%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $512 −$15 -3%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $273 +$90 +33%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $122 +$16 +13%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $340 +$110 +32%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $864 −$63 -7%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $2,185 −$212 -10%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $524 +$59 +11%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $395 −$15 -4%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4,992 −$762 -15%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $288 +$54 +19%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,118 −$21 -2%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $179 +$34 +19%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $133 +$42 +31%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,163 −$141 -12%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,302 −$82 -6%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $827 −$132 -16%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,335 −$149 -6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $300 +$66 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,159 +$50 +4%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $259 +$30 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +19%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $299 +$83 +28%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $261 +$183 +70%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $316 +$15 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $2,362 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 74¢ $37 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 74¢ $138 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 74¢ $59 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 74¢ $59 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $30 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $31 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $251 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $205 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $536 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $10 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $82 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 49¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 49¢ $23 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $459 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 48¢ $45 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 48¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 49¢ $7 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $32 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 48¢ $56 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 47¢ $19 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $18 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 46¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $210 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.12 · official $451.12 (match) · 3500 history records