Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76d7…da01 crypto 215 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+1%) realized +$67 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%112W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$215
14 days−$245
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -22.1% -29.5% 48% 48% -42.5%
≤30d 209 -3.1% -12.3% 54% 54% -9.6%
≤90d 213 -4.9% -14.0% 53% 53% -11.1%
all 213 -4.9% -14.0% 53% 53% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 53% -11.1%
10% -22.2% 53% -19.6%
15% -29.7% 52% -27.4%
20% -36.6% 45% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$23 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses112 / 101
Open positions2
Markets (closed)213 / 215
History coverage31d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 45¢ 50¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 40¢ 50¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$26 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$22 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$28 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$84 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$35 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$29 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $36 +$37 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $36 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $36 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $37 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.30 · official $44.30 (match) · 428 history records