Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76db…6987 world 53 markets active 8h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,048 (+1%) realized +$951 · open +$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate66%25W / 13L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$2,400per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$12,882now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$310
14 days+$507
30 days+$572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$508
economics 13% +$285
tech 7% −$154
other 2% +$17
crypto 1% +$1
politics 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -14.9% -23.0% 54% 36% -9.2%
≤30d 38 -2.5% -11.8% 66% 37% -9.0%
≤90d 38 -2.5% -11.8% 66% 37% -9.0%
all 38 -2.5% -11.8% 66% 37% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 37% -9.0%
10% -20.2% 26% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -27.9% 16% -25.7%
20% -35.0% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,511) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$132 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$12,882
Realized+$951
Unrealized+$97
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses25 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)38 / 53
History coverage36d
Avg bet$2,400
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $6,295 $6,394 +$99 (+2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 74¢ 76¢ $1,784 $1,831 +$47 (+3%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1,371 $1,359 −$12 (-1%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $632 $610 −$22 (-4%)
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $633 $585 −$48 (-8%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $433 $510 +$77 (+18%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 47¢ 54¢ $339 $385 +$47 (+14%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 50¢ 47¢ $360 $336 −$25 (-7%)
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 68¢ 55¢ $350 $282 −$69 (-20%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $265 $274 +$9 (+3%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 50¢ 37¢ $136 $100 −$35 (-26%)
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? No 64¢ 60¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $53 $62 +$9 (+16%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 70¢ 63¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-11%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 33¢ 46¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+38%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 66¢ 60¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 65¢ 94¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 23 $160 +$51 +32%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 22 $4,174 −$153 -4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 22 $1,216 −$74 -6%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Jun 22 $710 +$272 +38%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $1,534 +$283 +18%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $597 +$25 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $56 +$1 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1,190 +$130 +11%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $113 −$61 -54%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 20 $1,406 −$900 -64%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 19, 2026 Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $33,466 +$139 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day Jun 19 $14 +$13 +93%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 55.5 million views on day Jun 19 $103 +$27 +26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $565 +$172 +30%
Kash Patel out by December 31? Jun 18 $265 −$48 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $17,966 +$34 +0%
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 18 $55 +$10 +18%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $9,980 +$20 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $1,511 +$663 +44%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $298 +$51 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $7,992 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $370 −$220 -60%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $9,809 +$190 +2%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 16 $2,203 +$2 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +186%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$10 +47%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $9,970 +$30 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $107 +$6 +5%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 06 $1,152 +$1 +0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 +24%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $32 +$18 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 64¢ $5 8h
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 33¢ $3 8h
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 33¢ $4 8h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 64¢ $8 8h
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 28¢ $5 9h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 69¢ $12 9h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $18 11h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $10 13h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $10 13h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $5 13h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $8 13h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $5 14h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $1 14h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $10 15h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $10 15h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $5 15h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $5 15h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $5 15h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 16h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $5 16h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $10 17h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 76¢ $1 17h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $807 17h
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 16¢ $167 17h
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 16¢ $133 17h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $643 17h
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 16¢ $167 17h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $807 17h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $807 17h
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 16¢ $167 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,881.53 · official $12,881.78 (match) · 846 history records