Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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76 0x76e3…3268 crypto 1272 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,188 (-29%) realized −$4,626 · open −$562
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate60%760W / 511L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 114d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$1,494
other 34% −$5,562
sports 6% −$1,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1271 -26.1% -33.2% 60% 4% -50.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 4% -50.3%
10% -39.6% 2% -55.0%
15% -45.4% 2% -59.4%
20% -50.8% 2% -63.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$16 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized−$4,626
Unrealized−$562
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses760 / 511
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1271 / 1272
History coverage114d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 28¢ $1,000 $438 −$562 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 268 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,048 −$4,000 -99%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 61¢ $1,012 4h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $1,017 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,022 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,022 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 33h
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 110d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 110d
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 110d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 110d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 110d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 110d
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 110d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 110d
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 110d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 110d
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 110d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 110d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 110d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 110d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 110d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 110d
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 110d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 110d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 110d
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 110d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 110d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 110d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.31 · official $438.46 (match) · 3058 history records