Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
76 0x76e9…094b crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$93 (+0%) realized +$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%38W / 1L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,005per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$989now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$26
14 days+$83
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 25 +0.1% -9.5% 96% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 39 +0.2% -9.3% 97% 0% -9.3%
all 39 +0.2% -9.3% 97% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,043) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$142 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$989
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses38 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage44d
Avg bet$1,005
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $988 $989 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $976 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $974 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $968 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $967 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $964 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $962 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $960 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $956 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 07 $947 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 06 $938 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $929 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $913 +$15 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $903 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,044 −$142 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,035 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31? Jun 01 $1,032 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? May 30 $1,025 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? May 29 $1,019 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $1,015 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $1,010 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 26 $1,006 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 25? May 25 $997 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 20 $1,088 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 19 $1,083 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $1,069 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 17? May 17 $1,067 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $1,062 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15? May 15 $1,059 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 14? May 14 $1,050 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 13? May 13 $1,044 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $1,043 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11? May 11 $1,034 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 10? May 10 $1,025 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $1,019 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 8? May 08 $1,015 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 7? May 07 $1,013 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 06 $1,009 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 05 $1,001 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $998 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $988 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $182 34h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $661 34h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $134 34h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $687 46h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $288 46h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $968 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $967 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $964 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $962 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $562 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $398 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $956 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $947 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $210 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $6 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $33 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $191 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $207 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $99 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $99 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $32 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $51 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $929 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $354 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $559 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $903 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? SELL Yes 85¢ $742 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? SELL Yes 85¢ $25 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $988.51 · official $988.51 (match) · 123 history records