Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:05:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76f0…6512 crypto 475 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$305 (-2%) realized −$305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate66%314W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$11
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$412
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -27.9% -34.7% 56% 22% -22.0%
≤30d 71 -23.8% -31.0% 52% 32% -26.0%
≤90d 475 -12.4% -20.8% 66% 23% -11.9%
all 475 -12.4% -20.8% 66% 23% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 23% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 11% -20.3%
15% -35.3% 5% -28.0%
20% -41.6% 4% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses314 / 161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)475 / 475
History coverage56d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 475 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 02 $8 +$3 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 02 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 02 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 26 $23 −$6 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 26 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 26 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 26 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 26 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 26 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 26 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 26 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 26 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 26 $3 −$1 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 26 $6 +$4 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 26 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 26 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 26 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2146 history records