Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

76 0x76f1…1cfd other 4 markets active 2d ago coverage 57d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$66 (+22%) realized +$67 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip

Net edge+55%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$75per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+55.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+36.2%	+23.2%	100%	100%	+22.5%
≤30d	2	+36.2%	+23.2%	100%	100%	+22.5%
≤90d	3	+71.6%	+55.3%	100%	100%	+31.4%
all	3	+71.6%	+55.3%	100%	100%	+31.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+55.3%	100%	+31.4%
10%	+40.4%	100%	+18.8%
15%	+26.8%	100%	+7.4%
20%	+14.4%	33%	-3.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +45% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +72% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage

Net worth$157

Realized+$67

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage57d

Avg bet$75

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$158	$157	−$1 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Jun 18	$122	+$43	+35%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+37%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	Apr 25	$13	+$18	+142%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$162	2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	SELL No	87¢	$165	2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	BUY No	63¢	$122	4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY Yes	73¢	$5	58d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	BUY Yes	40¢	$13	58d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.33 · official $157.33 (match) · 9 history records