Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
76 0x76f4…200e sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 440d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,355 (-22%) realized −$3,352 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$476per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,441
7 days−$1,449
14 days−$1,449
30 days−$1,449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$699
other 23% −$1,457
world 8% −$1,162
crypto 7% −$1,000
politics 3% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +6.3% -3.9% 41% 41% -23.7%
≤30d 22 +6.3% -3.9% 41% 41% -23.7%
≤90d 22 +6.3% -3.9% 41% 41% -23.7%
all 31 -4.6% -13.7% 39% 39% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 39% -30.0%
10% -21.9% 39% -36.7%
15% -29.5% 35% -42.9%
20% -36.4% 29% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$725) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$365 vs −$410 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

440d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$3,352
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage440d
Avg bet$476
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $320 $317 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $158 +$220 +139%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $284 +$271 +95%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $89 −$87 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$165 +54%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $725 +$407 +56%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $754 +$959 +127%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $255 +$501 +196%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,179 −$1,162 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$339 +166%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $173 −$169 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$3 -6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $556 −$550 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $119 −$116 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $709 −$700 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $106 −$79 -74%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$480 +468%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $871 +$362 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $797 −$787 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $693 −$693 -100%
Will Venezuela make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final? Mar 17 $679 +$306 +45%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 16 $667 −$389 -58%
LG Sakers vs. Goyang Mar 11 $479 −$479 -100%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 08 $1,878 −$384 -20%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea Mar 07 $751 +$249 +33%
Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5 Nov 08 $100 +$121 +121%
Celtics vs. Magic Nov 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Apr 03 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $324 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SELL Lotte Giants 100¢ $378 2h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 57¢ $56 3h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 36¢ $102 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $555 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $81 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $89 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $468 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $596 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 90¢ $535 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $725 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 95¢ $900 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 86¢ $813 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $754 36h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $742 36h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $14 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $165 38h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 38h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 38h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $543 38h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $173 39h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 36¢ $38 45h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $41 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $556 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 24¢ $119 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $709 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.09 · official $317.09 (match) · 77 history records