Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76f5…91f6 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-43%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$13
other 21% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -19.6% -27.3% 50% 50% -47.6%
≤30d 16 -19.6% -27.3% 50% 50% -47.6%
≤90d 16 -19.6% -27.3% 50% 50% -47.6%
all 16 -19.6% -27.3% 50% 50% -47.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 50% -47.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 38% -52.6%
15% -40.6% 12% -57.2%
20% -46.4% 6% -61.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 56¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 59¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.75 · official $1.75 (match) · 44 history records