Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76fb…5ef5 sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$203 (-10%) realized −$211 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$151
14 days−$155
30 days−$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$79
other 13% −$133
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 26 -33.0% -39.4% 31% 31% -45.5%
≤90d 53 -0.5% -10.0% 40% 38% -20.8%
all 53 -0.5% -10.0% 40% 38% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 38% -20.8%
10% -18.6% 36% -28.4%
15% -26.5% 30% -35.3%
20% -33.7% 23% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$21 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$211
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 32
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions5
Markets (closed)53 / 58
History coverage87d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Under 55¢ 74¢ $31 $42 +$11 (+35%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 72¢ 59¢ $39 $32 −$7 (-18%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Under 35¢ 47¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+34%)
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Playoffs The Huns Esports 56¢ 55¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $69 −$68 -99%
Will FC Universitario win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $28 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -33%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$69 +134%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 13 $31 −$31 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $92 −$91 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $129 +$65 +51%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $6 +$13 +206%
Sato vs. Hayasaka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Palestine win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Bahrain leading at halftime? Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +30%
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $34 +$46 +134%
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $66 −$66 -100%
Syria leading at halftime? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Saski Baskonia (-3.5) Jun 07 $65 −$64 -99%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) May 31 $37 +$28 +76%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $61 +$1 +1%
Ryukyu Golden Kings vs. Diamond Dolphins May 18 $17 +$6 +38%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks May 18 $25 +$10 +42%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 11.5 Total Corners May 03 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Apr 27 $1 +$1 +90%
Counter-Strike: FC Famalicão Esports vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - ESL Apr 27 $12 −$1 -5%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Chal Apr 20 $41 +$12 +29%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 15 $50 −$7 -13%
Vacherot vs. Atmane: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Apr 13 $5 $0 -3%
Nakashima vs. Fils: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Apr 13 $5 $0 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Vacherot vs Atmane Apr 13 $5 $0 -2%
Ribera vs. Garland: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Apr 08 $65 −$2 -3%
Bucharest Open: Mariano Navone vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 06 $42 +$17 +42%
Madrid: George Loffhagen vs Zsombor Piros Apr 06 $49 −$2 -3%
Peristeri vs. Kolossos Rhodes Apr 05 $80 +$35 +44%
Counter-Strike: LAG Gaming vs BOSS (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North Apr 05 $61 +$57 +93%
Vacherot vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Apr 05 $100 −$3 -3%
Wuning: Fajing Sun vs Rigele Te Apr 05 $40 −$2 -4%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 04 $9 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Skele (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Apr 04 $13 +$3 +21%
Darderi vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Apr 04 $20 −$1 -3%
Sao Leopoldo: Murkel Dellien vs Paulo Dos Santos Apr 04 $5 +$21 +414%
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-04-02? Apr 04 $30 +$17 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $31 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $39 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $14 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $85 1h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY The Huns Esports 56¢ $9 1h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Barcelona 50¢ $51 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $24 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $9 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $69 5d
Will FC Universitario win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 11d
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $31 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $92 12d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 42¢ $51 13d
Sato vs. Hayasaka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $19 15d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $6 16d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $62 16d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $7 16d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $26 16d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $6 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.55 · official $183.55 (match) · 116 history records