Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
76 0x76fd…ab71 other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$122 (+3%) realized +$123 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate52%45W / 41L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$24
14 days−$5
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$42
crypto 12% −$31
world 11% −$5
sports 6% +$75
politics 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -3.3% -12.5% 8% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 61 -0.1% -9.6% 48% 28% -8.3%
≤90d 86 +0.5% -9.1% 52% 22% -7.9%
all 86 +0.5% -9.1% 52% 22% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 22% -7.9%
10% -17.8% 16% -16.8%
15% -25.7% 13% -24.8%
20% -33.0% 8% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$123
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses45 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage76d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 18 $56 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $56 −$3 -6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $59 −$1 -2%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Jun 16 $54 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 15 $45 −$1 -3%
NATO dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $65 −$17 -26%
EU dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $60 $0 +0%
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $118 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $41 +$20 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $47 −$7 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $45 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $39 +$6 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $41 −$4 -10%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 27 $42 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 23 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 23 $10 −$9 -90%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 23 $43 +$26 +60%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 23 $129 +$49 +38%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 21 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $59 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 21 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 21 $14 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 21 $13 +$17 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 21 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 21 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 21 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 21 $7 −$6 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 21 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 21 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 21 $22 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 21 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 21 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 21 $11 +$16 +136%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $58 1h
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? SELL SpaceX 98¢ $49 12h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 97¢ $56 12h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 97¢ $56 25h
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? BUY SpaceX 98¢ $49 25h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $51 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $53 25h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $51 36h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $56 36h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 96¢ $58 36h
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $49 36h
Epstein client list released by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $55 2d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $45 3d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $9 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 3d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $44 3d
NATO dissolves before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $67 3d
NATO dissolves before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $67 3d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $48 3d
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $63 3d
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $63 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $65 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $60 10d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $60 11d
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $60 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.30 · official $104.33 (match) · 233 history records