Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
77 0x7702…ff7b other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-14%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -18.9% -26.6% 50% 25% -7.3%
≤30d 4 -18.9% -26.6% 50% 25% -7.3%
≤90d 4 -18.9% -26.6% 50% 25% -7.3%
all 4 -18.9% -26.6% 50% 25% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 25% -7.3%
10% -33.7% 25% -16.2%
15% -40.1% 25% -24.3%
20% -45.9% 25% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$25 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage6d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $105 +$56 +53%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $149 −$44 -30%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 90¢ $161 49m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $105 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $105 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $149 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records