trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | -33.2% | -39.6% | 33% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -11.0% | -19.4% | 43% | 14% | -6.4% |
| all | 19 | -12.9% | -21.2% | 47% | 5% | -9.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.2% | 5% | -9.0% |
| 10% | -28.7% | 5% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -35.6% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -41.9% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | No | 80¢ | 81¢ | $12 | $12 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 27 | $72 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 24 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 23 | $15 | +$5 | +32% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 20 | $35 | +$2 | +4% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 20 | $9 | −$1 | -13% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 19 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 28 | $8 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 07 | $2 | −$1 | -75% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 07 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 18 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 30 | $2 | $0 | -10% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 30 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 27 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 25 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | -1% |