Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:02:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
77 0x7703…9fe9 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1
politics 34% $0
sports 10% $0
world 5% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage115d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 27 $107 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $324 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $107 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $107 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $107 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $107 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $107 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $109 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $109 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $109 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 06 $109 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $107 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $107 19h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $107 34h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $107 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $107 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $107 5d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $107 18d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $107 19d
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $107 29d
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $107 29d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $107 38d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $107 38d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $107 39d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $107 39d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 41d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 42d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $107 46d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $107 46d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $107 48d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $107 48d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $108 69d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $109 69d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $109 71d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $109 71d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $109 74d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $109 75d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $109 77d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $109 78d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $109 81d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $109 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records