Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x7704…8cde
other · 11 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$23 +54%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$23 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$12
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 2 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 32¢ 52¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+61%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 32¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +595%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5 +$7 +138%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +178%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% +$22
tech 26% +$1
sports 12% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +63.0% +47.5% 56% 56% +50.2%
≤30d 9 +63.0% +47.5% 56% 56% +50.2%
≤90d 9 +63.0% +47.5% 56% 56% +50.2%
all 9 +63.0% +47.5% 56% 56% +50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.5% 56% +50.2%
10% +33.3% 44% +35.8%
15% +20.5% 44% +22.7%
20% +8.7% 33% +10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.29 · official $12.29 (match) · 22 history records