trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 32¢ | 52¢ | $7 | $11 | +$4 (+61%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | +14% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$6 | +595% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$7 | +138% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $10 | +$18 | +178% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $5 | +$2 | +42% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 11 | $6 | −$6 | -97% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +63.0% | +47.5% | 56% | 56% | +50.2% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +63.0% | +47.5% | 56% | 56% | +50.2% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +63.0% | +47.5% | 56% | 56% | +50.2% |
| all | 9 | +63.0% | +47.5% | 56% | 56% | +50.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +47.5% | 56% | +50.2% |
| 10% | +33.3% | 44% | +35.8% |
| 15% | +20.5% | 44% | +22.7% |
| 20% | +8.7% | 33% | +10.7% |