Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7705…a442 sports 856 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 133d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,662 (-7%) realized −$12,397 · open −$265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%312W / 534L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$587est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$565now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$773
7 days−$810
14 days+$1,008
30 days−$1,056
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$2,821
other 26% −$5,774
world 25% −$4,875
crypto 1% +$322
finance 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -5.2% -14.2% 30% 30% -14.4%
≤30d 142 -9.8% -18.4% 32% 31% -13.6%
≤90d 351 -13.3% -21.5% 32% 32% -18.5%
all 846 -5.5% -14.5% 37% 33% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 33% -16.0%
10% -22.6% 33% -24.1%
15% -30.1% 32% -31.4%
20% -37.0% 31% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$151 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$565
Realized−$12,397
Unrealized−$265
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses312 / 534
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$587
Open positions5
Markets (closed)846 / 856
History coverage134d ⚠
Avg bet$212
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 846 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $276 $273 −$3 (-1%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $136 $143 +$7 (+5%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $338 $95 −$243 (-72%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 4¢ 1¢ $31 $5 −$25 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $257 +$153 +60%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $158 +$262 +165%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $198 −$198 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $169 +$861 +510%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $300 −$181 -60%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $73 −$72 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) Jun 18 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $222 −$222 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $535 −$535 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $180 −$180 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $77 +$321 +414%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $60 −$55 -92%
Set Handicap: Sonmez (-1.5) vs Golubic (+1.5) Jun 18 $27 −$27 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $208 −$208 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 18 $148 −$148 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $221 +$229 +103%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $220 +$280 +127%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $216 −$216 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $63 −$49 -78%
Set Handicap: Maria (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) Jun 17 $299 +$601 +201%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $137 +$683 +500%
Set Handicap: Starodubtseva (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $137 +$164 +119%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Will Argentina wi Jun 17 $195 +$654 +336%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $873 +$739 +85%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $311 +$228 +73%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $94 −$94 -100%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $395 −$395 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $125 −$125 -100%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $135 +$346 +257%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $221 +$368 +167%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $733 −$733 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,420 −$1,420 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $690 +$410 +60%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $101 +$259 +257%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $280 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $52 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $346 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 4¢ $32 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $257 3h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 37¢ $158 3h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 16¢ $169 10h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria 17¢ $119 12h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 41¢ $300 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $198 24h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 24h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 24h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 24h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 24h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 24h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 24h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 24h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 24h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL No 0¢ $0 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $1 24h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY No 41¢ $147 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 23¢ $73 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $222 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $180 28h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Mattia Bellucci 4¢ $5 29h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 47¢ $60 33h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 19¢ $77 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $535 33h
Set Handicap: Sonmez (-1.5) vs Golubic (+1.5) SELL Sonmez 1¢ $1 35h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 26¢ $81 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.03 · official $565.03 (match) · 3500 history records