Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
77 0x7709…3470 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$911 (-8%) realized −$903 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate71%17W / 7L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$435per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$207
7 days−$422
14 days−$422
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$589
sports 34% +$228
politics 11% −$587
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -13.0% -21.2% 71% 24% -13.9%
≤30d 21 -13.0% -21.2% 71% 24% -13.9%
≤90d 21 -13.0% -21.2% 71% 24% -13.9%
all 24 -13.6% -21.8% 71% 21% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 21% -17.4%
10% -29.3% 4% -25.3%
15% -36.1% 4% -32.5%
20% -42.4% 4% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$900) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$217 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$903
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses17 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage147d
Avg bet$435
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 43¢ $54 $45 −$8 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $48 +$6 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $416 −$368 -89%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $400 +$16 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $390 +$7 +2%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $371 +$23 +6%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $351 +$23 +6%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -91%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $300 +$55 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $131 +$168 +128%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $239 −$146 -61%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $116 +$15 +13%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $100 +$15 +15%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $93 +$8 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $636 −$396 -62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,131 +$21 +2%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $1,101 +$26 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,003 +$60 +6%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $901 +$23 +2%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 24 $299 +$14 +4%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 23 $900 −$601 -67%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Jan 23 $897 +$70 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $54 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $54 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $48 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $48 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $416 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $416 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $400 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $398 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $390 18h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $393 18h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $371 18h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 26h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports $2 27h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 97¢ $374 27h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 91¢ $351 28h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming $0 29h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $2 29h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $355 29h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 84¢ $300 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $300 42h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $131 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $116 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $115 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 87¢ $100 2d
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston SELL Taylah Preston 99¢ $101 2d
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 91¢ $93 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 23¢ $91 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 55¢ $239 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $239 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.12 · official $45.12 (match) · 50 history records