Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x770a…3c9b crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$845 (-8%) realized −$830 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate85%22W / 4L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$392
7 days−$409
14 days−$409
30 days−$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$434
world 26% −$847
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.7% -8.9% 83% 25% -13.8%
≤30d 26 +0.7% -8.9% 85% 23% -13.0%
≤90d 26 +0.7% -8.9% 85% 23% -13.0%
all 26 +0.7% -8.9% 85% 23% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 23% -13.0%
10% -17.6% 4% -21.3%
15% -25.6% 0% -28.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$503) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$259 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$830
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses22 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage24d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 65¢ 56¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $506 +$93 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $599 +$37 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $503 +$42 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $402 +$28 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $602 +$41 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $500 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $302 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $329 +$60 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $398 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $302 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $307 −$46 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $303 +$49 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $302 +$30 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $503 +$37 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $226 +$22 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $201 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $126 +$10 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,206 −$845 -70%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 18 $195 +$5 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $329 −$17 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $985 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $108 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $83 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.38 · official $100.77 · 157 history records