Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x770c…8fd8 other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%16W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$21
other 26% −$17
sports 19% −$11
crypto 10% −$4
world 4% −$7
culture 4% −$6
economics 3% −$1
finance 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 63 -1.0% -10.5% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 108 -0.7% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 123 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage101d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 94¢ 93¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 19 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $961 −$2 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $108 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $57 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $159 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 17 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 16 $62 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $18 $0 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $149 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $60 −$2 -4%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $234 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $159 −$3 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $196 −$4 -2%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 06 $53 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $139 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $90 −$1 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $61 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 03 $63 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $212 −$1 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $143 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee Jun 02 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $451 −$2 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $248 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $94 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $99 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $48 55m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $46 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $41 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $5 9h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 10h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 15h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $58 15h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $58 23h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $47 24h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $47 29h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 30h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $21 38h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 38h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 38h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $49 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $50 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $61 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $66 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $27 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $39 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $19 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $19 3d
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $48 3d
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.86 · official $47.86 (match) · 516 history records