Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
77 0x770c…23cf sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$40 (+11%) realized +$41 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$26
sports 36% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +21.5% +9.9% 75% 62% +13.3%
≤30d 8 +21.5% +9.9% 75% 62% +13.3%
≤90d 8 +21.5% +9.9% 75% 62% +13.3%
all 8 +21.5% +9.9% 75% 62% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 62% +13.3%
10% -0.6% 50% +2.4%
15% -10.2% 50% -7.5%
20% -19.0% 38% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.56 per $1 lost it wins $3.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 75¢ 73¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 39¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$3 +7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$4 -13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W Jun 21 $20 +$20 +101%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$11 +37%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$7 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$19 -62%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.33 · official $59.33 · 24 history records