Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x770c…9c05 sports 11 markets active 15h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-20%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$30
other 14% +$5
crypto 11% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -13.0% -21.3% 36% 36% -30.8%
≤30d 11 -13.0% -21.3% 36% 36% -30.8%
≤90d 11 -13.0% -21.3% 36% 36% -30.8%
all 11 -13.0% -21.3% 36% 36% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 36% -30.8%
10% -28.8% 36% -37.4%
15% -35.7% 36% -43.4%
20% -42.0% 27% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $15 +$18 +115%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $5 +$9 +170%
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $56 −$18 -33%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs Jun 18 $10 +$6 +59%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $16 −$15 -90%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $22 +$8 +36%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 15h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 64¢ $16 24h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 24h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo SELL Anastasiia Sobolieva 87¢ $14 24h
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season SELL X-CAST 57¢ $25 24h
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season SELL DRX Academy 33¢ $13 25h
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 68¢ $31 25h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 31¢ $5 25h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 19¢ $3 25h
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY DRX Academy 62¢ $25 26h
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs SELL Fancy United 100¢ $16 44h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL Nongshim Esports Academy $2 46h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally SELL Karolina Pliskova 99¢ $30 46h
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs BUY Fancy United 61¢ $10 47h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 60¢ $6 47h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 71¢ $22 2d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 50¢ $5 2d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 52¢ $9 2d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 54¢ $10 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 76¢ $16 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records