Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
77 0x770d…585c sports 3 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$334 (+42%) realized +$334 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$179
other 50% +$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +35.8%
≤30d 3 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +35.8%
≤90d 3 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +35.8%
all 3 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.3% 100% +35.8%
10% +30.5% 100% +22.8%
15% +17.9% 67% +10.9%
20% +6.3% 67% +0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$134 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$334
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage2d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $300 +$84 +28%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $400 +$222 +55%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $100 +$95 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 90¢ $384 7m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 68¢ $200 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 68¢ $100 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $622 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $100 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $300 12h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records