Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:41:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
77 0x770f…e1a4 crypto 446 markets active 2d ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$45 (+4%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%229W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$38
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$7
weather 11% −$9
sports 5% +$35
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +81.0% +63.7% 60% 60% +74.1%
≤30d 19 +49.0% +34.9% 42% 42% +43.7%
≤90d 63 +17.9% +6.6% 37% 33% -4.9%
all 446 +3.6% -6.2% 51% 41% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 41% -7.0%
10% -15.2% 36% -15.9%
15% -23.4% 30% -24.0%
20% -30.9% 24% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses229 / 217
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)446 / 446
History coverage103d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 446 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $4 +$8 +206%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $2 +$6 +309%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $10 +$18 +178%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$12 +303%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $3 +$14 +442%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 -12%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 10 $5 −$2 -45%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$5 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 1? May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 1? May 01 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30? Apr 30 $1 +$2 +220%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 25? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 26? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 21? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 20? Apr 20 $2 +$4 +217%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 19? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 19? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 18? Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 18? Apr 18 $4 −$2 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 17? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 17? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 15? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 16? Apr 16 $2 +$4 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 15? Apr 15 $2 +$5 +269%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 14? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13? Apr 13 $1 +$1 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 12? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? Apr 13 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 12? Apr 12 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 12? Apr 12 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 3? Apr 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 2? Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 2? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 1? Apr 01 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 30? Mar 30 $2 +$5 +261%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 30? Mar 30 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 2¢ $1 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 7¢ $1 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 14¢ $1 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 11¢ $1 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 16¢ $2 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 98¢ $2 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 40¢ $1 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 57¢ $10 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 22¢ $1 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 12¢ $1 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 21¢ $2 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $11 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 60¢ $2 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 38¢ $2 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 42¢ $1 3d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 10¢ $1 4d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 29¢ $2 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 84¢ $8 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 50¢ $1 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 10¢ $1 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 Esports 99¢ $2 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 49¢ $1 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $4 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $2 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 45¢ $24 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $16 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 13¢ $2 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 8¢ $2 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 18¢ $2 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 18¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1247 history records