Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7710…8417 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$676 (-35%) realized −$590 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$658now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$709
other 20% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-62.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -58.5% -62.5% 17% 17% -63.3%
≤30d 12 -58.5% -62.5% 17% 17% -63.3%
≤90d 12 -58.5% -62.5% 17% 17% -63.3%
all 12 -58.5% -62.5% 17% 17% -63.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.5% 17% -63.3%
10% -66.0% 17% -66.8%
15% -69.3% 17% -70.0%
20% -72.3% 17% -72.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$97 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$658
Realized−$590
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions9
Markets (closed)12 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 54¢ $85 $85 +$1 (+1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 38¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Under 25¢ 24¢ $85 $83 −$2 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $83 $81 −$1 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 74¢ $81 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 38¢ $82 $79 −$3 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 31¢ 30¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-2%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 19¢ 18¢ $81 $74 −$6 (-8%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 7¢ $85 $13 −$71 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $91 +$144 +158%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $88 −$88 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $91 −$91 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $97 +$136 +140%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $82 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $85 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $86 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $86 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $87 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $86 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 31¢ $81 8h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $83 8h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $84 8h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $88 11h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $90 11h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $91 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 34¢ $91 18h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $96 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $96 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $97 30h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $100 30h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $101 42h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $100 42h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $102 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $658.33 · official $659.27 (match) · 33 history records