Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7715…a90b other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%21W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$13
14 days−$23
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$10
politics 28% −$11
sports 13% −$9
crypto 10% −$7
culture 8% −$2
world 5% −$8
finance 4% −$5
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 64 -0.8% -10.2% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 110 -0.5% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.8%
all 131 -0.5% -9.9% 16% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses21 / 110
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage104d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $52 −$1 -2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $118 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 21 $2 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $159 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $22 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $262 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $223 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $112 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham Jun 17 $55 −$3 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $49 −$1 -3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $39 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $149 −$1 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 13 $163 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 12 $48 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $60 −$2 -3%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $10 $0 -4%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $118 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 10 $107 −$1 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 06 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 04 $53 −$2 -3%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $41 $0 -1%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 03 $47 $0 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $230 −$2 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $67 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $47 59m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $51 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $52 8h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 93¢ $17 9h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $17 17h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $2 17h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $2 22h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $64 23h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $15 30h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $27 30h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $10 30h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $10 30h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $2 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $22 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 36h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $42 37h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $43 43h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $50 44h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $50 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $51 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $56 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $56 2d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $51 2d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 90¢ $50 3d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 90¢ $51 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.96 · official $46.96 (match) · 515 history records