Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7718…aa4a other 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 581d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 71% −$14
politics 13% −$7
other 11% +$15
sports 2% +$33
crypto 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +10.3% -0.2% 14% 14% -7.0%
≤30d 17 +4.2% -5.7% 12% 6% -8.5%
≤90d 55 +8.5% -1.9% 25% 22% -9.1%
all 67 +9.0% -1.4% 28% 19% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 19% -9.4%
10% -10.8% 18% -18.1%
15% -19.4% 16% -26.0%
20% -27.3% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage581d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $18 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $133 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $124 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $108 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $8 +$6 +83%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $111 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $106 $0 -0%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $107 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $102 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $109 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $216 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $111 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $115 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $112 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 25 $108 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $110 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $114 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $226 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $128 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $115 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $23 +$1 +3%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 +$5 +72%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $9 +$7 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$11 +165%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +83%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $8 +$9 +104%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $6 +$4 +70%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 14m
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 2h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 27h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 28h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $10 2d
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 8d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $72 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 10d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 14d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $21 14d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $21 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 17d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 17d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 19d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 19d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.13 · official $103.13 (match) · 258 history records