Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
77 0x771a…f34d other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+6%) realized +$59 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$748now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$87
sports 28% +$155
tech 26% −$2
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% +18.7%
≤30d 4 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% +18.7%
≤90d 4 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% +18.7%
all 4 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% +18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.3% 50% +18.7%
10% -0.3% 50% +7.3%
15% -9.9% 50% -3.1%
20% -18.7% 25% -12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$45 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$748
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)4 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $255 $254 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $107 $108 +$1 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Under 78¢ 78¢ $101 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $101 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+15%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 +$122 +238%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 1m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $109 13m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 40m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $257 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 3h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $102 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 22h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 22h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $67 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $748.42 · official $748.42 (match) · 16 history records