Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
77 0x771f…b532 crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$280 (-2%) realized −$283 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate93%53W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$10
other 25% +$48
world 14% −$165
economics 10% +$11
politics 6% −$181
tech 4% +$11
sports 1% −$16
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 4 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤90d 14 -5.4% -14.4% 93% 0% -13.2%
all 57 -1.9% -11.2% 93% 5% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 5% -11.5%
10% -19.7% 5% -20.0%
15% -27.5% 5% -27.7%
20% -34.6% 5% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$109 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$803
Realized−$283
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses53 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)57 / 62
History coverage612d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $250 $250 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $234 $235 +$1 (+0%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $170 $172 +$2 (+1%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 95¢ 94¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 14 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 14 $361 +$17 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 19 $190 +$5 +3%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 19 $214 +$8 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 08 $300 +$4 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? May 08 $175 +$4 +2%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 08 $280 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 21 $166 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 05 $160 +$3 +2%
Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? Apr 05 $190 +$3 +2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $244 +$3 +1%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 05 $350 +$4 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 21 $333 +$3 +1%
Will NVIDIA dip to $108 in February? Mar 11 $150 +$1 +1%
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 11 $233 +$2 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 11 $534 +$4 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $450 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? Feb 03 $466 +$3 +1%
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Best Game You Suck At in the 2025 Ste Jan 26 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026? Jan 26 $450 +$9 +2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 03 $400 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $500 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 2? Dec 21 $340 +$2 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 21 $569 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 25? Dec 02 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 02 $366 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 02 $368 +$2 +1%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Nov 25 $500 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 5? Nov 07 $370 +$7 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo drop out? Nov 05 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Nov 05 $777 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.50 and $2.60 on October 16? Oct 31 $200 $0 +0%
Solana above $250 on September 8? Oct 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more th Oct 16 $80 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $108K on September 8? Oct 16 $160 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 08 $120 +$5 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $114K on August 13? Sep 08 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3300 on July 21? Aug 13 $260 +$1 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 21 $110 +$1 +1%
Ethereum above $2,600 on July 16? Jul 21 $144 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 7 at 5 PM ET? Jul 15 $244 +$1 +0%
Will any candidate win outright in 1st round of Poland Election? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 07 $180 +$2 +1%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? May 18 $16 −$16 -100%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 18 $222 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 09 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21? Mar 11 $241 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 19 $32 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $110 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $99 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $135 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $250 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $234 3d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $170 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $250 29d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $214 40d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $361 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $190 40d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $175 57d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 98¢ $200 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $166 73d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $300 73d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $280 73d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $350 88d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $160 98d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $333 98d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $244 98d
Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? BUY No 99¢ $190 98d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $534 134d
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $233 134d
Will NVIDIA dip to $108 in February? BUY No 99¢ $150 134d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $466 142d
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $450 165d
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Best Game You Suck At in the 2025 Ste BUY Yes 95¢ $12 165d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $450 165d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $400 178d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $500 178d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $340 197d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $803.27 · official $803.27 (match) · 120 history records