Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:43:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7723…a6cf crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.2% -23.3% 60% 20% -20.6%
≤30d 5 -15.2% -23.3% 60% 20% -20.6%
≤90d 5 -15.2% -23.3% 60% 20% -20.6%
all 5 -15.2% -23.3% 60% 20% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 20% -20.6%
10% -30.6% 20% -28.2%
15% -37.3% 0% -35.1%
20% -43.5% 0% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$65 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $258 +$8 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $287 −$30 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $280 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $267 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $258 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $258 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $287 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $288 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $280 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records