Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7723…802e other 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$2
politics 19% −$1
economics 17% $0
world 14% $0
tech 8% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
culture 4% $0
sports 3% $0
finance 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 50 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 128 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -11.4%
all 182 -2.6% -11.8% 0% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -11.4%
10% -20.3% 0% -19.9%
15% -28.0% 0% -27.6%
20% -35.0% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 182
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 182
History coverage221d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Decibel launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 10 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 -2%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -1%
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Mark Baisley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado? Jun 05 $1 $0 -2%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $185? Jun 04 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (6/1-6/7) Jun 04 $1 $0 -2%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 -1%
Will Annie Andrews be the Democratic nominee for Senate in North Carol Jun 01 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? Jun 01 $1 $0 -1%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca May 30 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $660b on June 30? May 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? May 29 $3 $0 -0%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 May 27 $1 $0 -2%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May? May 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Democrats (D) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? May 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will New York Knicks advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $1 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 -0%
APYX FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 23 $1 $0 -2%
Citrea FDV above $20M one day after launch? May 21 $1 $0 -3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 23m? May 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 global Netflix movie this May 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M May 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? May 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? May 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 18 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 1h
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 2h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 26h
Will Decibel launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 26h
Will Decibel launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 26h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $1 3d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day SELL No 95¢ $1 4d
Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States SELL Yes 95¢ $1 4d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States BUY Yes 96¢ $1 4d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of SELL No 98¢ $1 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 5d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 6d
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 6d
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 6d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 7d
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 7d
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 7d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $1 8d
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 477 history records