Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
77 0x7726…4aee weather 215 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 128d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$32,915 (+20%) realized +$34,210 · open −$1,295
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%97W / 108L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$768per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11,826now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$100
14 days+$1,237
30 days+$659
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1,082
weather 19% +$21,126
politics 15% +$9,743
other 8% +$738
economics 2% +$189
sports 1% +$7
crypto 1% −$1,118
finance 0% +$150
tech 0% +$844
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -7.4% -16.2% 0% 0% -16.2%
≤30d 21 -38.2% -44.1% 33% 19% -7.3%
≤90d 113 +35.0% +22.1% 43% 31% -1.4%
all 205 +52.4% +37.9% 47% 34% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.9% 34% +7.2%
10% +24.7% 27% -3.1%
15% ← realistic here +12.6% 23% -12.5%
20% +1.6% 19% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$536) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +60% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$518 vs −$170 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$11,826
Realized+$34,210
Unrealized−$1,295
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses97 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)205 / 215
History coverage129d ⚠
Avg bet$768
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 62¢ $6,952 $7,631 +$679 (+10%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 94¢ 94¢ $1,232 $1,239 +$7 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 65¢ 94¢ $650 $935 +$285 (+44%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 78¢ 84¢ $776 $841 +$65 (+8%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 20¢ $2,280 $820 −$1,460 (-64%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 86¢ $178 $183 +$5 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? Yes 33¢ 8¢ $330 $75 −$255 (-77%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 3¢ $303 $41 −$262 (-86%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $31 $34 +$3 (+9%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $389 $27 −$362 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 27 $1,350 −$100 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6,412 +$711 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $4,708 +$1,369 +29%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $2,843 −$565 -20%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $178 −$178 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $12,150 +$2,685 +22%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 12 $4,740 +$60 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 12 $4,036 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on June Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $440 −$436 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $1,499 −$1,331 -89%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $577 +$2,090 +362%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $14,595 +$15 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 30 $360 −$226 -63%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $1,040 −$628 -60%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 29 $780 −$780 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $536 −$536 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1,460 −$1,460 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 28? May 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $1,440 −$775 -54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 24? May 28 $476 +$81 +17%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 28 $610 +$390 +64%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 28 $1,866 +$1,134 +61%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 24? May 24 $40 −$39 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? May 24 $162 −$161 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 24? May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 24? May 24 $19 −$18 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $988 −$988 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $123 +$948 +773%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 24 $352 +$303 +86%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 24 $444 +$556 +125%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 24 $440 +$560 +127%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $231 +$1,487 +644%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $94 +$793 +848%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 15 $889 −$144 -16%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $27 +$86 +317%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $89 +$62 +70%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $311 +$89 +29%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $403 +$164 +41%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $159 +$541 +341%
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $680 +$42 +6%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $408 +$955 +234%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 15 $3,589 +$1,052 +29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14? May 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $32 52m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $1,180 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $2,950 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $81 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $1,250 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $2,700 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $868 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $477 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 14h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $1,080 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $17 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $270 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $176 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $192 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $440 32h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 60¢ $179 33h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 60¢ $8 33h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 60¢ $9 33h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 60¢ $270 33h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 60¢ $600 33h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 60¢ $134 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY Yes 33¢ $225 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,826.02 · official $11,826.02 (match) · 3500 history records