Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7729…2d9e crypto 755 markets active 6h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (153 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12,050 (-31%) realized −$12,050 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate81%609W / 146L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day152.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,828
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (153 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -3.2% -12.4% 89% 2% -23.9%
≤30d 755 -8.9% -17.6% 81% 5% -13.7%
≤90d 755 -8.9% -17.6% 81% 5% -13.7%
all 755 -8.9% -17.6% 81% 5% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 5% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 4% -22.0%
15% -32.7% 2% -29.5%
20% -39.3% 1% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$22 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,050
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses609 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)755 / 755
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day152.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 755 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $89 −$29 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $116 −$113 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $122 −$23 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$16 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records