Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x772b…1840 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$58 (+4%) realized +$97 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$93
sports 11% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 55% -5.8%
≤30d 22 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 55% -5.8%
≤90d 22 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 55% -5.8%
all 22 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 55% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 55% -5.8%
10% -20.9% 45% -14.9%
15% -28.5% 45% -23.1%
20% -35.5% 32% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$46 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$97
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage5d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 28¢ $94 $55 −$39 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $71 −$69 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $350 +$41 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $119 +$81 +67%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $84 +$17 +20%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $97 +$103 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 +$36 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $72 +$28 +40%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$58 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$14 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$33 +50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 +$70 +246%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $95 39m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 2¢ $2 55m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 71¢ $71 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $391 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $350 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 6h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 83¢ $84 6h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $97 28h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 29h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $55 36h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.00 · official $55.00 (match) · 49 history records