Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
77 0x772d…4ed6 weather 18 markets active 4d ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$97 (+6%) realized +$97 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 42% −$17
other 38% +$88
weather 19% +$11
sports 1% −$10
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.2% -27.8% 38% 38% -5.6%
≤30d 8 -20.2% -27.8% 38% 38% -5.6%
≤90d 8 -20.2% -27.8% 38% 38% -5.6%
all 18 -8.1% -16.9% 67% 22% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 22% -5.7%
10% -24.8% 11% -14.7%
15% -32.1% 6% -22.9%
20% -38.7% 6% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage148d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +70%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $151 +$20 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $109 −$8 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -90%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $552 −$9 -2%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $441 +$68 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on January 29? Jan 29 $101 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on January Jan 28 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on January 28? Jan 28 $88 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 34-35°F on January 2 Jan 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or higher on January 28? Jan 28 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on January 28 Jan 28 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 57°F or below on January 28? Jan 28 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 62-63°F on January 27 Jan 27 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or below on Janua Jan 24 $6 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 46-47°F on January 1 Jan 16 $3 −$2 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes $1 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $171 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 SELL $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 BUY $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 27¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 20¢ $4 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 22¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 96¢ $26 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 79¢ $245 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 76¢ $14 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 76¢ $216 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 75¢ $473 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 87¢ $87 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 30¢ $57 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $338 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 37¢ $75 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No $74 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No $83 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 68¢ $84 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $324 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $118 6d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on January 29? SELL No 100¢ $107 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records