Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
77 0x772e…2ccc crypto 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate75%171W / 56L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$526
7 days+$526
14 days+$526
30 days+$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +11.4% +0.8% 66% 55% +1.2%
≤30d 65 +11.4% +0.8% 66% 55% +1.2%
≤90d 77 +2.7% -7.1% 61% 52% -6.0%
all 227 +5.1% -4.9% 75% 60% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 60% -8.8%
10% -14.0% 36% -17.6%
15% -22.3% 21% -25.5%
20% -29.9% 15% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$87 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses171 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)227 / 227
History coverage178d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 227 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$31 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $72 +$44 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $62 +$35 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $76 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$25 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $113 +$59 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $154 +$46 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $43 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $152 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $62 +$34 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $82 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $71 +$25 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $164 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $122 −$11 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $313 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$71 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $93 −$70 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $134 −$72 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $83 +$51 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $61 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $72 +$37 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$36 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $79 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $62 +$39 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $143 +$72 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $124 −$70 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $114 +$64 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$49 -47%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$33 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$17 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $131 +$112 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $101 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$43 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $82 +$39 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$21 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$33 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $72 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1470 history records