Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x772f…6075 crypto 471 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$284 (-2%) realized −$291 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate64%298W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$48
14 days−$61
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$325
other 5% −$2
weather 3% −$44
politics 3% −$78
world 2% +$25
finance 1% −$56
sports 1% −$8
culture 1% +$8
tech 0% −$7
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +3.7% -6.2% 84% 44% -15.1%
≤30d 67 -7.0% -15.9% 73% 36% -12.2%
≤90d 464 -6.8% -15.7% 64% 33% -12.3%
all 464 -6.8% -15.7% 64% 33% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 33% -12.3%
10% -23.7% 16% -20.7%
15% -31.1% 9% -28.4%
20% -37.9% 6% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$291
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses298 / 166
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)464 / 471
History coverage68d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Orange County? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+19%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 82¢ 91¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 80¢ 97¢ $10 $13 +$2 (+21%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+6%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? No 82¢ 80¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Michael Echols be the Republican nominee for LA-05? No 81¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+10%)
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $153 −$59 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $254 +$21 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $76 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$8 +17%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 17 $9 −$7 -75%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 15 $14 +$2 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 -3%
Will Heather Doran win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-electio Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 Jun 13 $6 +$1 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +9%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +7%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +22%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$17 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $112 +$26 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Maria Natale win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral election? Jun 08 $5 $0 +10%
Will Anna De Gaio win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Raffaele Giordano win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election? Jun 08 $14 +$2 +16%
Will Sandro Parcaroli win the 2026 Macerata mayoral election? Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 07 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Manuel Flavio Minervini win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election? Jun 07 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $14 +$3 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $14 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $13 +$1 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $8 +$3 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 +$3 +32%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $78 +$12 +15%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $8 +$3 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3h
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? SELL No 100¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 3h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 80¢ $4 18h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL Yes 67¢ $6 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.87 · official $68.87 (match) · 1267 history records