Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
77 0x772f…4374 other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$227 (+21%) realized +$243 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$173
14 days+$245
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$101
sports 4% +$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +8.1% -2.2% 52% 52% -41.1%
≤30d 32 +17.8% +6.6% 44% 44% +19.2%
≤90d 32 +17.8% +6.6% 44% 44% +19.2%
all 32 +17.8% +6.6% 44% 44% +19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 44% +19.2%
10% -3.6% 44% +7.8%
15% -12.9% 41% -2.6%
20% -21.5% 38% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$24 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized+$243
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)32 / 46
History coverage13d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $40 $27 −$13 (-34%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$22 +220%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$20 +51%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$39 +129%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $153 +$425 +278%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 3m
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $33 19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 21h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 40¢ $10 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 50¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.97 · official $257.23 · 91 history records