Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7732…8d82 sports 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,103 (+18%) realized +$998 · open +$105
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%45W / 51L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,690now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$615
7 days+$1,454
14 days+$1,106
30 days+$1,106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$1,454
other 36% −$290
world 0% −$17
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +37.5% +24.4% 57% 57% +70.3%
≤30d 16 +29.1% +16.8% 56% 56% +39.2%
≤90d 16 +29.1% +16.8% 56% 56% +39.2%
all 96 +0.4% -9.2% 47% 45% +11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 45% +11.9%
10% -17.9% 42% +1.2%
15% -25.8% 40% -8.6%
20% -33.1% 33% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$25 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$1,690
Realized+$998
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses45 / 51
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 103
History coverage176d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 54¢ $1,100 $1,134 +$34 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $485 $556 +$71 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $609 +$615 +101%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $305 +$426 +140%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 +$105 +227%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$174 +86%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Aus Jun 14 $20 +$50 +245%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$222 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $81 −$68 -84%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$40 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 07 $364 −$364 -100%
Levante UD vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to Score Feb 15 $101 −$52 -52%
SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score Feb 15 $100 −$11 -11%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score Feb 15 $90 −$2 -2%
Torino FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to Score Feb 15 $129 −$69 -53%
FC Lorient vs. Angers SCO: Both Teams to Score Feb 15 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $150 −$136 -91%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $1 $0 +41%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 14 $100 +$89 +89%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $119 +$32 +27%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 23.5 Feb 09 $60 +$41 +68%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $208 +$99 +48%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to Score Feb 08 $110 −$2 -2%
Patriots Team Total: O/U 20.5 Feb 08 $70 −$12 -18%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $41 −$1 -3%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 08 $16 $0 -2%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5 Feb 08 $30 $0 +0%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score Feb 08 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $60 +$60 +100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $53 −$10 -19%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $50 +$49 +96%
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) Jan 26 $20 +$19 +96%
Spread: Patriots (-5.5) Jan 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5 Jan 22 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $12 +$12 +100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 21 $10 +$16 +163%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Jan 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? Jan 19 $19 +$27 +141%
Will the 49ers win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jan 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $2 +$1 +66%
Spread: Patriots (-4.5) Jan 12 $10 +$11 +108%
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 45.5 Jan 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Jan 11 $14 +$5 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $507 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $507 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. Portug BUY $26 18h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $609 30h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $151 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $305 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 46¢ $10 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $81 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $377 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $203 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY 44¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $203 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Aus BUY 28¢ $20 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will BUY 10¢ $21 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $13 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $81 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $497 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $30 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $40 7d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $364 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,690.14 · official $1,715.14 · 192 history records