Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7732…a330 sports 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$351 (+7%) realized +$355 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$298
7 days+$160
14 days+$160
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$11
world 19% −$108
other 14% +$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -8.4% -17.1% 47% 41% -5.9%
≤30d 34 -8.4% -17.1% 47% 41% -5.9%
≤90d 34 -8.4% -17.1% 47% 41% -5.9%
all 34 -8.4% -17.1% 47% 41% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 41% -5.9%
10% -25.1% 38% -14.9%
15% -32.3% 38% -23.2%
20% -38.9% 35% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$67 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized+$355
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage197d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $189 $187 −$2 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 14¢ 14¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 32¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $27 −$26 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $88 +$92 +104%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $168 −$166 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $628 −$40 -6%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $122 +$118 +97%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $107 +$93 +86%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $69 +$65 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $277 −$272 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $104 −$60 -58%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $482 −$46 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $252 +$47 +19%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $66 +$104 +158%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $109 −$109 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $128 +$11 +8%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $211 +$189 +89%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $117 +$81 +69%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 12 $131 +$68 +52%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $91 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $90 −$88 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $165 −$74 -45%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $85 +$115 +134%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $209 +$91 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $37 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $175 +$95 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $188 +$112 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $95 −$15 -16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $45 −$44 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$84 +83%
US tariff revenue up in Q3 2025? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $25 13m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $0 49m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $54 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $47 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $192 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $27 15h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $180 16h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $168 16h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $88 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $66 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 61¢ $109 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 47¢ $86 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 57¢ $293 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $180 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 41¢ $330 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $79 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $31 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $16 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $170 20h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 100¢ $240 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $173 21h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $122 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 25¢ $44 22h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 53¢ $107 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $104 23h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 35¢ $36 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $61 24h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $69 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 1¢ $7 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.70 · official $311.70 (match) · 88 history records