trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | No | 88¢ | 74¢ | $33 | $28 | −$5 (-15%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $18 | $18 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 56¢ | 60¢ | $15 | $16 | +$1 (+6%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 15¢ | 15¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-0%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 60¢ | $16 | $13 | −$3 (-19%) |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 48¢ | 52¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 12¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-26%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 31¢ | 20¢ | $5 | $3 | −$2 (-37%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 14 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | Jun 14 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 14 | $10 | +$24 | +239% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +79.8% | +62.7% | 67% | 33% | +92.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +79.8% | +62.7% | 67% | 33% | +92.1% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +79.8% | +62.7% | 67% | 33% | +92.1% |
| all | 3 | +79.8% | +62.7% | 67% | 33% | +92.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +62.7% | 33% | +92.1% |
| 10% | +47.1% | 33% | +73.7% |
| 15% | +32.9% | 33% | +56.9% |
| 20% | +19.9% | 33% | +41.5% |