Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7735…3806 other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$14 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% +$37
other 6% −$29
economics 3% +$2
crypto 0% −$3
finance 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +17.3% +6.1% 55% 55% -9.8%
≤30d 18 +3.4% -6.5% 56% 56% -10.2%
≤90d 29 -32.3% -38.7% 38% 34% -8.9%
all 63 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 44% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 44% -9.2%
10% -26.3% 44% -17.9%
15% -33.4% 38% -25.8%
20% -39.9% 29% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)63 / 75
History coverage618d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 29 $100 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +82%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 28 $1,100 −$1 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +60%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1 $0 +34%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 +35%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +41%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-01? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? May 12 $1,185 +$38 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $96 +$1 +1%
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $100 −$4 -4%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 16 $197 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $101 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $1 $0 +41%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $1 $0 +25%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $1 $0 +38%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $1 +$1 +54%
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? Dec 24 $2 +$1 +38%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 12? Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Base airdrop in 2024? Dec 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $100 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 19h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $100 27h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $100 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.46 · official $12.49 (match) · 188 history records