Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7737…6042 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$444 (+17%) realized +$426 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days+$7
14 days+$342
30 days+$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$322
sports 5% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -6.1% -15.0% 64% 64% -9.2%
≤30d 19 +6.9% -3.3% 74% 74% +2.7%
≤90d 19 +6.9% -3.3% 74% 74% +2.7%
all 19 +6.9% -3.3% 74% 74% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 74% +2.7%
10% -12.5% 47% -7.1%
15% -21.0% 37% -16.1%
20% -28.7% 16% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$69 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$426
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage12d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? No 67¢ 75¢ $148 $167 +$18 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $197 +$52 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $242 +$43 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $441 −$35 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $154 +$122 +79%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $92 +$62 +68%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $162 −$160 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $140 +$22 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $120 +$20 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $102 +$18 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $208 +$166 +80%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $140 +$69 +50%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $124 +$16 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $98 +$26 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $68 +$30 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $49 +$19 +38%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $43 +$21 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? BUY No 67¢ $152 53m
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 53¢ $51 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 78¢ $197 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 22? BUY No 58¢ $88 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $242 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY No 59¢ $16 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY No 56¢ $125 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 56¢ $23 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? SELL No 45¢ $148 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $277 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 54¢ $120 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 55¢ $34 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 58¢ $92 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $162 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $140 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $120 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $120 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $102 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 54¢ $208 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $140 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $124 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $98 10d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $68 11d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 11d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $49 11d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? SELL No 92¢ $63 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 60¢ $43 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.72 · official $165.83 (match) · 43 history records