Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7738…2e3a other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$2
other 26% +$2
sports 6% $0
finance 4% $0
politics 3% −$2
weather 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +27.1% +15.0% 18% 9% -10.1%
≤90d 16 +18.6% +7.3% 12% 6% -10.0%
all 43 +5.0% -5.0% 26% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 5% -9.9%
10% -14.1% 2% -18.5%
15% -22.4% 2% -26.4%
20% -30.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage466d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 29¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $30 −$1 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $65 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $72 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $21 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $34 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec May 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Canada raise tariffs on the U.S. before June? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? May 27 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 19 $11 +$2 +17%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $11 $0 -2%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Mar 30 $12 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 25 $12 $0 -0%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 52°F or below on March 18? Mar 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $12 $0 +3%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Mar 11 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $7 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $7 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $9 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $20 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $19 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $11 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $35 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $35 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $31 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $35 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $35 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 28¢ $24 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 30¢ $2 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 29¢ $22 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 83¢ $36 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 85¢ $36 26d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $33 27d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $4 27d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $30 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $21 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $37 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $37 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.41 · official $28.50 (match) · 110 history records