Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x7738…76a4
politics · 1466 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$547 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$443 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$531
Realized−$443
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses514 / 893
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions53
Markets (closed)1407 / 1466
History coverage123d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 53 History 1407 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$22
14 days−$11
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 78¢ $84 $89 +$5 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 55¢ $53 $68 +$15 (+27%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 76¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $37 $47 +$10 (+26%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 43¢ 30¢ $35 $24 −$11 (-31%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 49¢ 61¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+24%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 46¢ 66¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+45%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 66¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+30%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 28¢ 36¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 24¢ 96¢ $3 $12 +$9 (+302%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 42¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+35%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 90¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 82¢ 75¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 92¢ 42¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-55%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 18¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-50%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ 55¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 50¢ 74¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? No 15¢ 22¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? No 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? No 69¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will ON Semiconductor say "China" during earnings call? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime M Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be the 2025 film with the highest domestic g Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +119%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 13 $10 +$21 +208%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $21 +$7 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 09 $10 +$6 +64%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 05 $15 +$6 +38%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 05 $36 −$36 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 05 $34 −$34 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 44m? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $6 +$15 +251%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $5 +$3 +68%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $12 +$5 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$7 +128%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $3 $0 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $12 −$12 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2 +$23 +1074%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -51%
Will "Backrooms" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +69%
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $76 +$63 +83%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 30% +$70
other 19% −$284
politics 13% −$72
finance 13% +$161
culture 11% −$233
crypto 9% −$45
sports 4% −$35
tech 1% −$17
weather 1% −$13
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 93¢ $14 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 36¢ $11 17h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL Yes 85¢ $11 23h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 86¢ $32 23h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $29 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? SELL No 98¢ $15 28h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY No 11¢ $1 29h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 36h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 36h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 41h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 46h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -21.5% -29.0% 48% 38% +4.5%
≤30d 147 -12.9% -21.2% 35% 32% -7.1%
≤90d 1097 -15.5% -23.5% 37% 31% -12.9%
all 1407 -17.5% -25.3% 37% 30% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 30% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 26% -22.2%
15% -39.0% 22% -29.7%
20% -45.0% 18% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $530.70 · official $530.83 (match) · 3500 history records