Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7738…5dbd sports 405 markets active 23h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,865 (-4%) realized −$5,865 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%225W / 180L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day47.3pace
Fees−$1,559est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$773
7 days−$1,137
14 days−$1,137
30 days−$2,413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$5,532
other 1% −$91
crypto 0% −$470
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -14.2% -22.4% 51% 49% -15.8%
≤30d 177 -5.1% -14.1% 56% 51% -13.6%
≤90d 405 -5.5% -14.5% 56% 50% -13.4%
all 405 -5.5% -14.5% 56% 50% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 50% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 39% -21.7%
15% -30.2% 30% -29.3%
20% -37.0% 21% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$211 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,865
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses225 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,559
Open positions0
Markets (closed)405 / 405
History coverage60d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 405 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis Jun 16 $383 −$383 -100%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $219 +$162 +74%
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair Jun 16 $295 −$293 -99%
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma Jun 16 $293 −$290 -99%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $732 +$136 +19%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 16 $257 −$257 -100%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $477 +$122 +26%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka Jun 15 $268 +$104 +39%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 15 $437 −$9 -2%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $230 −$230 -100%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 15 $351 +$299 +85%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $436 −$152 -35%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $371 +$65 +18%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $371 +$152 +41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $384 −$200 -52%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $268 +$332 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $280 +$202 +72%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 12 $178 −$175 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $978 −$521 -53%
ITF Los Angeles: Maxwell Exsted vs Theodore Dean Jun 11 $237 +$208 +88%
ITF Los Angeles: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Sasha Rozin Jun 11 $392 +$92 +23%
ITF Los Angeles: Salma Ewing vs Maria Aytoyan Jun 11 $302 +$92 +30%
ITF Los Angeles: Alexis Nguyen vs Lily Taylor Jun 11 $250 −$182 -73%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $260 −$20 -8%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $286 −$286 -100%
ITF Decatur: Maria Sholokhova vs Anna Rogers Jun 11 $610 +$162 +26%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Carlos Giraldi vs Samuel Vincent Ruggeri Jun 11 $8 +$7 +92%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Khrystyna Vozniak vs Isabella Shinikova Jun 11 $270 −$270 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $236 −$236 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $543 −$301 -55%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $120 −$120 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Matic Kriznik vs Miles Jones Jun 11 $449 +$135 +30%
ITF Wichita: Kenta Miyoshi vs Christian Langmo Jun 11 $445 +$85 +19%
ITF Los Angeles: Andrew Johnson vs Timofey Stepanov Jun 10 $585 +$104 +18%
ITF Cuiaba: Sofia Cohen Perovani vs Rebeca Pereira Jun 10 $677 +$258 +38%
ITF Wichita: Enzo Aguiard vs Adria Soriano Barrera Jun 10 $502 −$502 -100%
ITF Brasilia: Pedro Rodrigues vs Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto Jun 10 $7 +$1 +11%
ITF Decatur: Piper Charney vs Emma Jackson Jun 10 $99 −$98 -99%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $865 −$59 -7%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $443 +$340 +77%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $580 +$419 +72%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $307 −$307 -100%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Martina Trevisan Jun 10 $283 +$27 +10%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $567 +$295 +52%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $120 −$120 -100%
Birmingham: Elvina Kalieva vs Talia Gibson Jun 01 $121 $0 -0%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $144 −$23 -16%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 01 $347 −$94 -27%
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano May 31 $118 +$119 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis BUY Facundo Yunis 63¢ $5 23h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis BUY Facundo Yunis 66¢ $18 23h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis BUY Facundo Yunis 66¢ $136 23h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis BUY Facundo Yunis 66¢ $7 23h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis BUY Facundo Yunis 66¢ $10 23h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis BUY Facundo Yunis 66¢ $58 23h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis BUY Facundo Yunis 66¢ $70 23h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis BUY Facundo Yunis 66¢ $70 23h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis BUY Facundo Yunis 66¢ $10 23h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Daniel Galan 100¢ $381 23h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 57¢ $7 25h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 57¢ $13 25h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 57¢ $16 25h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 57¢ $7 25h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 57¢ $43 25h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 57¢ $130 25h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 57¢ $3 25h
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair BUY Saki Tange 66¢ $33 26h
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair BUY Saki Tange 56¢ $11 26h
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair BUY Saki Tange 56¢ $6 26h
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair BUY Saki Tange 56¢ $38 26h
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair BUY Saki Tange 68¢ $206 26h
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma BUY Matteo Covato 45¢ $38 26h
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma BUY Matteo Covato 45¢ $25 26h
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma BUY Matteo Covato 45¢ $25 26h
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma BUY Matteo Covato 45¢ $3 26h
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma BUY Matteo Covato 45¢ $203 26h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez SELL Belle Thompson 100¢ $1 33h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) BUY PortlandFire 48¢ $9 33h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) BUY PortlandFire 45¢ $3 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2922 history records