trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +63.8% | +48.2% | 50% | 50% | +99.4% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +4.3% | -5.7% | 50% | 50% | +7.0% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -6.9% | -15.7% | 50% | 50% | -8.3% |
| all | 12 | -6.9% | -15.7% | 50% | 50% | -8.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.7% | 50% | -8.3% |
| 10% | -23.8% | 50% | -17.1% |
| 15% | -31.2% | 42% | -25.1% |
| 20% | -37.9% | 25% | -32.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 61¢ | 12¢ | $10 | $2 | −$8 (-80%) |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | Jun 17 | $10 | +$23 | +227% |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 17 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | Jun 05 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? | Jun 02 | $10 | +$3 | +28% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? | Jun 01 | $10 | +$7 | +72% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $10 | +$9 | +86% |
| Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid | May 31 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | May 23 | $10 | −$8 | -80% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Apr 30 | $10 | +$4 | +43% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Apr 30 | $10 | +$4 | +41% |
| Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? | Apr 12 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | Apr 12 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |