Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:00:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x773c…cc98 other 206 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,517 (+1%) realized +$1,544 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate84%158W / 30L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$585per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,050now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$391
14 days+$399
30 days+$400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 56% +$2,072
other 16% +$331
finance 8% +$184
world 8% +$137
crypto 4% −$766
tech 4% −$304
politics 3% +$52
sports 1% −$206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 0% -6.3%
≤30d 7 -1.1% -10.6% 86% 14% -6.3%
≤90d 75 -1.1% -10.5% 89% 8% -8.0%
all 188 -4.8% -13.9% 84% 10% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 10% -8.4%
10% -22.1% 5% -17.1%
15% -29.6% 1% -25.1%
20% -36.5% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$58 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$2,050
Realized+$1,544
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses158 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)188 / 206
History coverage267d
Avg bet$585
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 87¢ 80¢ $654 $607 −$47 (-7%)
ByteDance IPO before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $377 $384 +$7 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 93¢ 100¢ $231 $248 +$17 (+8%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $182 $192 +$9 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $178 $184 +$6 (+4%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $96 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $53 $28 −$25 (-47%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Amazon acquire TikTok? No 95¢ 99¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+2%)
USD1 depeg by December 31? No 89¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+3%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 88¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-4%)
USDE depeg by December 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $10,955 +$391 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -42%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $47 +$3 +6%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 12 $118 +$5 +4%
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? Jun 11 $19 +$3 +13%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $50 $0 +1%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? May 19 $36 +$3 +7%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $298 +$2 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $96 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $812 +$28 +3%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $94 +$6 +7%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $21 +$9 +41%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $16 +$4 +25%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $195 +$5 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $197 +$3 +1%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30? May 01 $92 +$8 +8%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by April 30? May 01 $96 +$4 +4%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by April 30? May 01 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 01 $281 −$29 -10%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 01 $510 +$10 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 01 $322 +$11 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 01 $54 +$2 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $386 +$14 +4%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 30 $52 +$1 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $9,029 +$209 +2%
Will Google reach $355 in April? Apr 30 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Google dip to $240 in April? Apr 30 $5 $0 +1%
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15? Apr 24 $59 +$8 +14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $47 −$16 -35%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 13 above $370? Apr 18 $20 $0 +1%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 16 $142 +$8 +6%
Will Google reach $335 in April? Apr 14 $199 −$186 -94%
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $252 +$9 +3%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate Apr 09 $408 +$3 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? Apr 08 $199 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 08 $193 −$31 -16%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $46 −$46 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 05 $642 −$3 -0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$305 on the final day of trading of the Apr 05 $64 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 30 above $180? Apr 05 $135 +$2 +2%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $11 $0 +4%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.05 by March 31? Apr 01 $44 +$1 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $105 +$6 +6%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 01 $178 +$22 +12%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.15 by March 31? Apr 01 $392 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 1h
ByteDance IPO before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $280 2d
ByteDance IPO before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $93 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $55 5d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $42 5d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO BUY Yes 93¢ $24 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $18 6d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 7d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $49 28d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $44 32d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 99¢ $50 34d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $687 36d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $31 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $98 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $7 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $3 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $98 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $56 38d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY No 99¢ $99 38d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY No 99¢ $20 38d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY No 99¢ $178 38d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $96 40d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $581 41d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $5 42d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $50 42d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $50 42d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $49 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,050.00 · official $2,050.00 (match) · 1020 history records