Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
77 0x773c…cf18 sports 746 markets active 0h ago coverage 606d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,191 (+0%) realized +$3,528 · open −$337
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%401W / 337L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$950per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1,712est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 606d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,833
other 2% +$1,060
politics 1% −$473
tech 1% −$1,661
world 0% +$1,062
culture 0% +$123
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +25.0% +13.1% 59% 59% -5.6%
≤30d 61 +5.5% -4.6% 46% 44% -11.1%
≤90d 174 +2.2% -7.5% 58% 53% -3.4%
all 738 -4.6% -13.7% 54% 50% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 50% -9.7%
10% -21.9% 39% -18.3%
15% -29.5% 32% -26.2%
20% -36.4% 28% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,001) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$499 vs −$605 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$1,505
Realized+$3,528
Unrealized−$337
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses401 / 337
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,712
Open positions8
Markets (closed)738 / 746
History coverage606d
Avg bet$950
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 738 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 48¢ $338 $335 −$3 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score No 45¢ 44¢ $305 $302 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 31¢ 24¢ $319 $252 −$67 (-21%)
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 20¢ 29¢ $132 $193 +$60 (+45%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 32¢ 10¢ $473 $156 −$317 (-67%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 86¢ $92 $105 +$13 (+14%)
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 79¢ 77¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-3%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies 69¢ 55¢ $86 $69 −$17 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 26 $471 −$468 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Jun 26 $311 −$311 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $317 −$317 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $299 −$299 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $98 +$25 +26%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $89 +$33 +38%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $98 +$24 +24%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $305 +$48 +16%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $296 −$296 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 25 $308 +$592 +192%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $201 +$34 +17%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 24 $114 −$114 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 24 $310 −$310 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 24 $289 +$79 +27%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 23 $419 +$50 +12%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $926 −$926 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $284 +$397 +140%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $258 +$294 +114%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $880 +$235 +27%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 20 $298 −$298 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 20 $324 +$997 +307%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 20 $164 +$836 +510%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 19 $366 −$366 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 19 $308 −$308 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 18 $251 +$695 +276%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 17 $291 −$291 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 17 $292 −$292 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 17 $292 −$292 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 17 $301 +$752 +250%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 17 $293 +$899 +307%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 16 $406 −$406 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 15 $402 −$402 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 14 $246 −$246 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,503 −$432 -17%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $250 +$166 +66%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 13 $270 −$270 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 13 $268 −$268 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $350 −$350 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 12 $207 −$207 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $307 +$244 +79%
Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5) Jun 12 $325 +$47 +14%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $393 +$95 +24%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $434 +$133 +31%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $284 −$284 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 10 $205 −$205 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $368 +$84 +23%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $295 +$336 +114%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 06 $256 +$994 +388%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 06 $391 +$89 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 69¢ $87 23m
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 79¢ $98 38m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $179 42m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $1 45m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $309 46m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $93 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 31¢ $326 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $1 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $342 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $304 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes $3 18h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $2 21h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $97 21h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $89 28h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 80¢ $2 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 80¢ $97 29h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 28¢ $299 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $317 30h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 86¢ $305 36h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 84¢ $311 36h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 86¢ $296 47h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 85¢ $201 2d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs $1 2d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 23¢ $310 3d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 78¢ $3 3d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 78¢ $286 3d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) SELL Chicago Cubs 22¢ $117 4d
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 89¢ $419 4d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 23¢ $307 4d
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 79¢ $493 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,505.25 · official $1,505.25 (match) · 2762 history records