Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
77 0x773e…7862 sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$331 (+29%) realized +$331 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$143
sports 42% +$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +16.6% +5.5% 65% 65% +15.5%
≤30d 17 +16.6% +5.5% 65% 65% +15.5%
≤90d 17 +16.6% +5.5% 65% 65% +15.5%
all 17 +16.6% +5.5% 65% 65% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.5% 65% +15.5%
10% -4.6% 59% +4.5%
15% -13.9% 47% -5.6%
20% -22.3% 35% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$30 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$331
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $49 +$32 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $50 −$14 -28%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 −$23 -94%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $49 +$39 +78%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $99 +$54 +55%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $49 +$68 +137%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $49 +$6 +12%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $49 +$82 +165%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$24 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $49 +$11 +22%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $149 +$53 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $223 +$66 +30%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$41 +165%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $109 +$42 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $81 3m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $36 9m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $49 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $50 5h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $88 17h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $49 19h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $49 21h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 85¢ $117 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $21 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $132 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $99 36h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $25 39h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $49 39h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 27¢ $56 40h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 23¢ $49 41h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $49 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $25 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $49 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $202 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 58¢ $61 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $149 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $49 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $99 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $151 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $109 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $96 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records